Water levels in Angat Dam dipped below the critical mark after registering 159.95 masl on Tuesday morning, June 30, 2026. Gigie Cruz, ABS-CBN News
MANILA — The Philippines is bracing for a potentially more intense El Niño as the state weather bureau said the current strong El Niño may develop into a "very strong" event by the last quarter of 2026 and persist until early 2027.
At the 200th Climate Forum on Wednesday, PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando urged the public, local governments and key sectors to take forecasts and warnings seriously as the phenomenon could significantly affect rainfall and water resources across the country.
"Starting October, more provinces may experience reduced rainfall. In fact, about 45 provinces, based on our projections, ay makararanas ng dry condition at walong provinces ang makararanas ng drought condition," Servando said.
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El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific.
During El Niño, unusually warm sea surface temperatures develop over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. In the Philippines, the phenomenon is generally associated with below-normal rainfall, warmer temperatures and an increased risk of water shortages, although its effects can vary across the country.
PAGASA classifies prolonged below-normal rainfall based on its duration and intensity.
A dry condition occurs when rainfall remains below normal for two consecutive months. A dry spell occurs when below-normal rainfall persists for three consecutive months, or when rainfall is way below normal for two consecutive months.
When prolonged dry conditions become more severe—three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall—PAGASA classifies the situation as a meteorological drought.
According to PAGASA projections, more provinces could be affected by dry conditions, dry spells and drought as El Niño strengthens.
The most critical period is expected from January to March 2027, when the number of areas experiencing drought could increase.
— What makes this El Niño different? —
The Philippines has experienced strong to very strong El Niño events before, including those in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2017.
But climate experts say the current episode is notable because of the unusual temperature conditions observed both at the ocean surface and below the surface.
Ana Liza Solis of PAGASA's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section described the warming as unprecedented in terms of intensity.
"Although strong at very strong yung dati, ito'y very strong unprecedented yung warming niya. Yung nararanasan ng init ng temperatura natin ay kombulsyon," she said.
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For PAGASA, an El Niño event is classified as very strong when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius for three consecutive months.
Solis compared the level of ocean warming to hyperpyrexia, or an extremely high fever in humans, which requires immediate attention.
— Agriculture and water supply among concerns —
A stronger and longer-lasting El Niño could have consequences for several sectors, particularly agriculture, water supply, energy and public health.
Reduced rainfall can affect crop production and livestock, while prolonged dry conditions can put additional pressure on reservoirs, irrigation systems and other sources of water.
Local governments and key sectors are therefore being urged to prepare before the impacts become severe.
Possible measures include adjusting agricultural calendars, managing available water resources, preparing communities and ensuring that critical infrastructure and essential services are ready for prolonged dry conditions.
Government development partners are also working on triggers and anticipatory actions that can be activated as the El Niño situation evolves.
With rainfall expected to decline in more areas in the coming months, experts are also urging the public to practice water conservation and avoid unnecessary wastage.
As the country prepares for what experts describe as a potentially "super El Niño," authorities say early preparation will be critical in reducing its impacts on communities and essential resources