Parents and guardians pick up young pupils from an elementary school in Quezon City amid moderate rain, September 17, 2026. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News
MANILA — The southwest monsoon or Habagat may end within the first week of October, signaling the end of the rainy season in the western part of the country, PAGASA said Thursday.
“Sa unang bahagi ng Oktubre ay maaaring mag-terminate na tayo o matapos na itong southwest monsoon o Habagat. Kasabay ng pagtatapos ng Habagat ay matatapos na rin ‘yung rainy season,” weather forecaster Leanne Loreto said during PAGASA’s morning broadcast.
“Mas mababawasan na ‘yung mga pag-ulan, lalong-lalo na sa kanlurang bahagi ng ating bansa,” she said.
(We may terminate the southwest monsoon during the first part of October. This will also mark the end of the rainy season, with less rainfall expected especially over the western part of the country.)
In previous years, the Habagat season ended within the first half of October.
Once Habagat ends, the country will enter a transition period, with the humid easterlies becoming more dominant before the northeast monsoon or Amihan sets in.
“Itong northeast monsoon ay maaaring magsimula naman o yung onset nito ay posible sa pangalawang bahagi naman ng buwan ng Oktubre,” Loreto added.
(The northeast monsoon may begin during the second half of October.)
EL NINO
However, the prevailing El Niño may make this Amihan season different from previous years.
“Dahil nasa El Niño tayo, posible na hindi ganoon kalamig yung mga temperature na mararanasan natin kumpara nitong mga nakaraang taon,” Loreto said.
(Due to the prevailing El Niño, temperatures may not be as cold as in the previous years.)
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For October, PAGASA forecasts one or two tropical cyclones to form within or enter the PAR.
Climatologically, tropical cyclones in October tend to make landfall over Luzon, especially in northern and southern Luzon, and less frequently in Caraga and Eastern Visayas.
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The next storm names are Rosal and Samuel.
In terms of rainfall, most of Luzon, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga may experience below normal precipitation or about 20 to 60 percent rainfall reduction in October.
Negros, Central Visayas, and the rest of Mindanao will receive near normal rains during the month.
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CHOI-WAN
Meanwhile, the tropical storm with international name Choi-wan in the vicinity of Guam is not expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility.
“Ito pong tropical storm Choi-wan ay malayo sa ating kalupaan… Wala po itong epekto na direkta sa ating bansa at hindi ito inaasahan na papasok ng Philippine area of responsibility,” Loreto said.
(Tropical storm Choi-wan will remain far from the Philippine landmass. It will not directly affect the country or enter the PAR.)
However, its trough or extension may affect the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao.
Cloudy skies and scattered rains are expected over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Oriental.
Northern Mindanao and the rest of Davao Region may get isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening.
“In the next two to three days, ‘yung trough pa rin ang magdadala ng mga pag-ulan sa eastern sections ng Visayas at Mindanao,” Loreto said.
(In the next two to three days, the trough will continue to bring rains over the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao.)
At 3 a.m. Thursday, tropical storm Choi-wan was located 2,945 kilometers east of Central Luzon.
It has maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour with gustiness up to 90 kph and is moving west northwestward at 15 kph.
The weather disturbance formed from a low pressure area early Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will continue to experience warm and humid conditions with possible rain showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening.